The Fantasy Football Chronicles: Week Five

October 8, 2011

By Greg Blume

Week 4 Result: W, 126.66 – 78.14

Record: 3 – 1

This week’s theme is CONSISTENCY—and also its lack.  As I’ve discussed (and otherwise made obvious), I’m much more comfortable with starters—even mediocre starters—whose performances I can predict, than with players whose “upsides” I have to gamble on, even if those upsides are tremendous.  This is why I won’t start talented players like Danario Alexander and Kyle Rudolph until I’m sure that they’ve become regular weapons for their teams.  I’m too conservative to take wild guesses at their breakout weeks.  When they perform well two games in a row, I’ll feel good about incorporating them.

At the same time, it’s impossible to construct a roster entirely of consistent performers—inconsistency has to be let in the room, especially now that the bye weeks are here.  And I jump right into the middle of that shuffle, as my consistently mediocre (but at least consistent) quarterback takes the week off.

 

 

Week 4 Starters

 

QB: Sam Bradford, St. Louis

vs. Washington: 20-43 passing, 164 yds., 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 lost fumble

Bradford was outplayed by both my bench quarterbacks last week.  I had a feeling that this would happen, but I stuck with Bradford because I was sure of what I would be getting.  He had put up average to above-average numbers in each of the first three weeks, while my other two QB’s (Dalton and Cassel) had fluctuated wildly between impressive and insignificant:

 

 

Fantasy Points by Week

 

            1                      2                      3                      4         

 

Bradford:           4.02                 20.74               10.84               10.56

Cassel:                8.36                 – 2.68               17.14               18.40

Dalton:               9.24*               27.58                 2.78               21.12

* Dalton missed the second half with an injury.

 

 

This analysis has a very small sample size, but after those first three weeks, Bradford was the only one to have put up two consecutive double-digit totals.  I figured that at least one of my bench quarterbacks would have a better game than Bradford in Week 4, but I couldn’t be positive about either one of them, so I went with my starter and his guaranteed ten points.

 

This week, I won’t have those guaranteed points, as the Rams take their bye.  So it’s Dalton or Cassel, and I’m going with Cassel.

 

Basically, while both players have been inconsistent, Cassel seems to be on a more stable upswing at this point—his two worst weeks were the first two of the year.  Dalton fluctuates more, at least partially because his numbers rely on the big play—he completed a 58-yard pass to A.J. Green on Sunday, and connected with Jerome Simpson for an 84-yard play in Week 2.  In his Week 3 drop-off in San Francisco—the week that I started him, recall, thinking that he’d tear up the Niners pass defense—he averaged 9.2 yards/completion, and didn’t connect on any pass for more than ten yards.  He also threw two picks and no touchdowns in that game.  This is what can happen when a defense gives him trouble (at this stage of his development, of course; I can say non-facetiously that Dalton has fantastic upside).

 

Week 5: Bye

 

 

WR: Calvin Johnson, Detroit

at Dallas: 8 catches, 96 yds., 2 TD’s

 

In order to understand how remarkable Johnson’s consistency is, you have to look at his stat timelines from the last two weeks.  It’s one thing for him to accumulate his yards and points over the course of four quarters; but even when he isn’t having a big game, he comes from behind (in fantasy terms, at least) and grabs the requisite points late.  The points were always going to come; they were just taking their time getting here:

 

Week 3—at Minnesota:

 

1st quarter:       0 catches, 0 yards

2nd quarter:      1 catch, 7 yards

3rd quarter:       2 catches, 37 yards, 1 TD

4th quarter:       3 catches, 24 yards, 1 TD

Overtime:        1 catch, 40 yards

Total:              7 catches, 108 yards, 2 TD’s

 

All but seven of his 108 yards were gained in the second half or overtime.  And forty yards—37% of his total—were gained on one play in overtime, the second to last play of the game.

 

And then there’s last week’s game in Dallas (which I “watched” on the CBS score feed running underneath the Steelers-Texans matchup):

 

1st quarter:       0 catches, 0  yards

2nd quarter:      3 catches, 38 yards

3rd quarter:       0 catches, 0 yards

4th quarter:       5 catches, 58 yards, 2 TD’s

 

As I’m following this game in the score feed, I’m seeing the following early in the afternoon:

 

DET 0 | DAL 17 … Johnson, 2 rec, 18 yds

 

Then a little later:

 

DET 3 | DAL 20 … Johnson, 3 rec, 38 yds

 

And that was it—Johnson, 3 rec, 38 yds—for the longest time.  Until the fourth-quarter surge that helped win the game.

 

In a fantasy football sense—and in a real-life football sense (ask the Cowboys)—Johnson is the ultimate closer, or as near a closer as a wide receiver can be.  And this week, he’ll be closing out my fantasy matchup, as he takes the field on Monday night.  My team will have to be in really bad shape to be out of striking distance come Monday, with both Johnson and Hanson yet to accumulate their points.

 

Week 5: vs. Chicago (Monday night)

 

 

WR: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City

vs. Minnesota: 5 catches, 107 yds., 1 TD

The game against Minnesota was Bowe’s biggest yet, as he led the Chiefs to their first victory of the year.  This week, I’m starting his quarterback, and—I was about to say, if Cassel has a big game, Bowe will, as well…but Bowe will get his yards no matter what.  I just need Cassel to perform well for his own sake.

 

Week 5: at Indianapolis

 

 

WR: Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis

at Tampa Bay (Monday night): 2 catches, 146 yds., 2 TD’s

 

As discussed last week, I started Garcon (and Dallas Clark) because Curtis Painter got the start at quarterback for the Colts.  Garcon put up big numbers, though he did so on only two receptions.  Still, he was targeted eight times—and, while two-for-eight isn’t a great completion percentage, if Painter continues to improve, I’m betting that Garcon’s production will improve along with him.

 

Week 5: vs. Kansas City

 

 

RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville

vs. New Orleans:  11 rushes, 84 yds., 0 TD

1 catch, 3 yds., 0 TD

 

This is the fewest total yards that Jones-Drew has accumulated in a game this season, it was the first time that he failed to reach double digits in fantasy points.

 

Week 5: vs. Cincinnati

 

 

RB: Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants

at Arizona: 9 rushes, 18 yds., 1 TD

1 catch, 0 yds.

 

Look at those stats—two yards/rush, and a catch for no yards at all.  But he got the one touchdown that I look for.  That’s all.

 

Week 5: vs. Seattle

 

 

TE: Dallas Clark, Indianapolis

at Tampa Bay (Monday night): 3 catches, 46 yds., 0 TD

 

With Painter leading the Colts’ offense, I have more confidence that Clark will maintain at least this level of production than that Kyle Rudolph will do so (Rudolph had a nearly identical 3/44/0 on Sunday).  Depending on their respective performances this week, though, Rudolph could end up the Week 6 starter.

 

Week 5: vs. Kansas City

 

 

RB (flex): Darren Sproles, New Orleans

at Jacksonville:   7 rushes, 75 yds., 0 TD

5 catches, 56 yds., 0 TD

 

By my count, out of ten fantasy positions (including DEF), I have seven consistent performers:

 

Fantasy Points by Week

 

            1                      2                      3                      4         

 

Bradford:           4.02                 20.74               10.84               10.56

C. Johnson:        20.80               14.90               24.80               21.60

Bowe:                 1.70                 13.30               12.70               18.70

Jones-Drew:       15.70               10.70               18.70               8.70

Jacobs:                2.90                 12.70               14.10               7.80

Sproles:              14.20               12.00               14.50               13.10

Hanson:              9.00                 14.00               17.00               12.00

 

Each player has a range, of course, but the ranges are predictable:1 Bradford will put up 10 points each game; it seems impossible for Johnson to drop below 15 or so, with a ceiling so far of 25 (though there’s definitely an explosion there waiting to happen); Bowe and MJD both hover between 10 and 20; Jacobs gets me his one touchdown (and whatever collateral damage comes with it); Sproles lands 10 to 15; and Hanson’s good for about that much, as well.

As much as I hate treating sports as merely fields of interactive quantities, the fantasy sports world lends itself to that perspective quite naturally.  This is largely because each fantasy player truly exists in isolation.  Your receivers don’t rely on your quarterback, nor does their production help to set up your running game.  Each player is an independent unit, and the fantasy owner’s job is to plug the most lucrative units into the lineup each week.  On top of this, head-to-head matchups aren’t really head-to-head.  My guys have nothing to do with your guys.  We’re both just trying to accumulate points in a vacuum.2

 

What does all this have to do with Sproles?  He’s back there at the beginning of my thought process, when I was discussing consistency.  His consistency is remarkable in its unlikelihood.  The Saints offense is so diverse that it’s where statistical predictability goes to die (except, of course, in the case of its ringleader).  Sproles, nevertheless, is able to maintain quality numbers week after week because of his unique set of skills: he’s a force in both the run and pass games, giving him twice the opportunity to make plays.  What six weeks ago I thought was a risky draft pick turns out to have been a pretty sensible choice.  I just had no idea at the time.

 

[1] While these expectations are based on a smaller sample size than is ideal, the sample isn’t as tiny as it looks: a quarter of the season has already been played.

 

2 There are exceptions to the vacuum seal, of course: sometimes your quarterback depends on my receiver to have a good game, in which case our guys cancel each other out; or I start a quarterback along with his favorite receiver—their fortunes are tied together, and my team’s fortunes to them.  I might also sub out my defense if my opponent’s quarterback is facing them; that way, if his QB has a big day, he doesn’t beat me twice by accumulating points for his side and erasing the earning potential of the team in my DEF slot.

Anyway, before this footnote becomes any more self-indulgent—the point is that these cases are the exception.  The vast majority of fantasy football is played in a base-10 vacuum.

 

Week 5: at Carolina

 

 

K: Jason Hanson, Detroit

at Dallas: 2/2 FG, 4/4 PAT

 

Hanson is teamed up with Calvin Johnson this Monday night in my fantasy week’s home stretch—and my opponent will be countering with Jahvid Best and (if he starts him) Johnny Knox.

 

Week 5: vs. Chicago (Monday night)

 

 

DEF: Pittsburgh

at Houston: 17 pts. allowed, 0 sacks, 0 turnovers

 

The Steelers defense has been as inconsistent as possible:

 

Week 1: at Baltimore.  Fantasy points: -3.00

Week 2: vs. Seattle.  Fantasy points: 15.00

Week 3: at Indianapolis.  Fantasy points: 10.00

Week 4: at Houston.  Fantasy points: 1.00

 

I took the Steelers early in the draft because the handful of top defenses in the league can consistently provide double-digit point totals.  So far this year, the Steelers are not one of those defenses.  In looking around for who those defenses are, I found that the Titans D was a free agent in my league.  The comparison:

 

Pts. against      Sacks   Int.      Fum. rec.         TD

Tennessee:       56                    10.0     5          2                      1

Pittsburgh        66                    7.0       0          1                      1

 

So I picked up Tennessee, who happens to be playing the Steelers this week—the Steelers, who: are 27th in the league in points/game; are tied for the league lead in giveaways with 11 (five lost fumbles, six picks—though seven of those turnovers came in Week 1); have given up the third most sacks in the league (14); have had a field goal attempt blocked; and are led by a fumble-prone scrambling quarterback currently wearing a walking boot.  I’m not one to ever really like my chances, but if I were, then I would here.

 

(To make room for Tennessee’s D, I dropped Tony Scheffler.  Suddenly, Jacoby Jones and Darrius Heyward-Bey aren’t expendable anymore (see below), and I have another viable backup tight end in Kyle Rudolph (see below, again).  Scheffler wasn’t likely to see time as a starter, anyway—after his invisible game in Week 3, he was targeted once and didn’t make a catch in Week 4 against Dallas.)

 

Week 5: vs. Tennessee

 

 

Notables on the bench:

 

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota

at Kansas City: 3 catches, 44 yds., 0 TD

 

Rudolph is still clearly the second tight end in Minnesota (behind Visanthe Shiancoe), but his role is gradually increasing.  His two previous weeks: 1 catch, 15 yds. (week 2); 3 catches, 39 yds. (week 3).

 

Week 5: vs. Arizona

 

 

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Oakland

vs. New England: 4 catches, 115 yds., 0 TD

 

Big game for Heyward-Bey, especially by recent standards.  He was targeted more than any other Raiders receiver, and it looks like he’s over his knee injury.  And if this isn’t a fluke, it also looks like I’m not as thin at WR as I thought.

 

Week 5: at Houston

 

 

Kevin Walter, WR, Houston

Jacoby Jones, WR, Houston

vs. Steelers (combined): 2 targets, 0 catches

 

It looks like Andre Johnson is going to miss three weeks with his hamstring injury.  While Walter and Jones hardly saw the ball last week, they are obviously going to play a larger role in the offense with Johnson out.  I think that Walter, especially, will be seeing the ball a lot more than usual.  He and Heyward-Bey are the likeliest candidates to take Bowe’s place when the Chiefs go on a bye in Week 6—and we can watch both men in the same game on Sunday, as the Raiders visit Houston.  If Heyward-Bey shows that he really is back, then he’ll take Bowe’s spot; if not, hopefully Walter will have success in the reworked Houston offense, and I can go with him.  (And if both players perform, and Painter-to-Garcon isn’t working out, I might end up pulling Garcon for Week 6 and playing both Heyward-Bey and Walter.)

 

Week 5: vs. Oakland

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